Middle East About To Explode

Other than the raid by the IDF of the ships determined to open a weapon smuggling route to the Hamas brethren of the Islamist Turkish organizations that sponsored the trip, something else very significant is brewing in the Middle East.

I have outlined in other blog posts that the Middle East functions not based on a “power balancing” paradigm like Europe, but on one centered on a “bandwagon” effect. This means, in short, that being feared and powerful is far better in the region than being liked, and that aggression will gain you “allies” and followers as states decide to get onto the winning team before they become the next target.

The United States was the hegemon in the Middle East. We crept into the role after 1991, but very much more so after our second war in Iraq which saw immediate returns in the form of Libyan compliance with our wishes, Syrian malleability, gains in Lebanon (temporarily, alas), and many other tangible benefits after our invasion of Iraq. Unfortunately, the United States hates the idea of being the hegemon in the Middle East so much that we spent the last two years of Bush II trying to wiggle out of it, and now after a year and a half of Obama, we have completely convinced the Middle East that we are 100% not interested in sticking around to ensure stability there as we did in Asia. (As a side note, the Middle East has always been a cauldron of violence EXCEPT when a single, usually imperial power dominated it, in which case it would spend decades or centuries in productive peace, just FYI.)

Now, the Middle Eastern states have taken Obama’s message to heart. They will now have to have another round of major wars to sort out exactly who the new top dog is over there. Iran seems to have gotten away with everything and is the growing power that openly thumbed it’s nose at the USA and sent in support to help kill our troops in Iraq. Now, the fear of Iran engendered by it’s history and positioning is paying off. Turkey, once a stalwart American ally seems to have (with it’s backing of this blockade breaker fleet against Israel) finally peeled off and is now effectively cooperating with Iran. This is an enormous shift. Turkey is a huge state with the second most powerful military in the region (other than Israel), a big economy, and a relatively modern state apparatus. Losing Turkey gives the anti-Americans a huge boost. Not only that, but our oldest follower in the region other than Israel, Egypt, has staged war games aimed at giving it’s troops practice in they type of operations necessary to attack Israel. This is another massive red flag that has gone unnoticed in Washington. If we lose Egypt, we are almost toothless in the status game of Middle Eastern bandwagon politics.

Syria is now arming at an alarming rate, and has been doing so for several years. They are built up to a level not seen since 1973, thanks to Iran buying off their debt with Russia (dating back to 1973, incidentally) which had kept them from charging up the credit cards on new tanks and missiles. Syria is now armed to the teeth. So is Hizbullah. So is Egypt (thanks to us). So is Turkey (largely thanks to us). So is (to some extent) Iran (thanks to China). But of course, egypt would never use American technology to attack Israel, right? Just like the Taliban would never use American technology for use against the USSR against American interests? I mean, this is the Middle East here; people respect their contracts, right?

What is happening now is that the bandwagoning effect of states jumping on Iran’s bandwagon has progressed to the point where it is nearing critical mass fast. If Egypt tilts too far, the whole Middle East will explode again as it has not done since 1973. America will be standing on the sidelines as an out of (our) control major military conflict goes on just across a couple small borders from our own military conflict in Iraq. The possibilities for this going wrong are staggering in their number.

Why does the Iran bloc have to attack Israel anyway? Why can’t we have a “peaceful rise”, as China purports to be doing? Because Israel will not submit to Iran, for it is not suicidal. Israel refuses to be the sacrificial goat of the region. So long as the strongest military and economic power in the area refuses to join the wolf pack, it is not complete. If it is not complete, the Alpha wolf is not secure. If he is not secure, he, himself is dead meat in the long run, because his entire claim to authority is his ability to cow or terrify every other wolf in the pack. Iran MUST defeat Israel or Iran itself will be attacked by the Arab states who don’t particularly like the Persians, or by Suunis who don’t particularly like Shiites. The mere fact that Israel refuses to cower is what keeps the Gulf Arab states from kowtowing to Teheran. They have gone so far as to offer (reportedly) the use of Saudi airspace to Israeli warplanes on their way to Iran. That cannot be tolerated. Once too many big states jump on the bandwagon, a war is inevitable.

War is inevitable, that is, unless the USA does something about it. Of course, with a President who has been doing nothing but throwing doggy biscuits almost randomly at the wolves, we are in no position to assume the leadership mantle that is currently unoccupied. This means that Israel will be the only real resistance to Iranian hegemony. Believe me, Egypt does not risk it’s incredibly cushy position with our State Department lightly. If they are engaging in anti-Israel war games, this tank of gasoline is very likely about to go poof.

Keep that in mind as you watch upcoming events. Believe me, the Palestinians are a sideshow. The main event is Arab-Israeli War V; this time with a Persian flavoring and some American troops caught up in it from Baghdad and Falluja. In Gen X terminology; how incredibly joyful!

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~ by Jubal Biggs on June 4, 2010.

3 Responses to “Middle East About To Explode”

  1. Extremely interesting post. Thanks

  2. Ah, yes, Obama and loons WANT this conflict! For the same reason they WANTED a blowout of the Deep Horizon. Kill ALL oil supplies to the point that all opposition to totalitarian control through gnat’s pee energy supplies (wind, etc) will be a walk in the park. This is certainly also an effective way at population “control” (ie. reduction) through total socio-economic collapse and ensuing war, disease and starvation. Horsemen of the apocalypse, anyone? However, those socialist embeciles are not counting on Islam striking at them since they are stupid enough to believe that socialism is socialism in any and all forms and that two religous groups (Gaians and Muslims) both wishing total world domination can somehow “get along”. Calling Obama and handlers idiots is kinder than most would be. More correctly, THEY are the planet killers!!!

  3. […] The busiest day of the year was July 21st with 155 views. The most popular post that day was Middle East About To Explode. […]

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